Valley National Bancorp (VLY)
Financial Services
- Fundamental
- 4
- Sentiment
- 3
- Technical
- 2
Do Nothing: technicalScore 2/5 - price below the SMA20/50 and EMA9/21 with MACD -0.21 and ADX 34 confirming a strong short-term downtrend, so no bullish entry qualifies (score below the 3 floor). No pullback/oversold limit qualifies: countertrend gate - price 13.40 < SMA50 14.29 with MACD < 0, a bid into a live short-term downtrend. No breakout/momentum stop qualifies: a buy-stop above the settled 9/18 high 13.64 / running 9/21 high 13.66 is a countertrend breakout with no momentum confirmation and fails the score floor. All other gates passed (overnight gap 1.11%, recent 3-session liquidity ~$101.9M, indicators loaded, ATR 2.16% of price, no earnings/dividend event inside the 15-day holding window through 2026-10-12).
Company overview
Valley National Bancorp, headquartered in New York, operates as the holding company for Valley National Bank. It provides a wide range of financial services including commercial and consumer lending, investment management, and insurance. The company serves clients through 232 branches across New Jersey, New York, Florida, and Alabama.
Fundamental
goodValley National Bancorp shows solid fundamentals with improving profitability and manageable sector-specific risks.
Valley National Bancorp is showing a clear earnings rebound (FY2025 net income $598M; Q1–Q2 2026 results up YoY) while trading at ~11.8x trailing earnings and yielding ~3.1%. SEC filings indicate the bank remains well-capitalized (CET1 around ~10.7–11.0%) and liquid, but commercial real estate credit exposure and deposit-cost sensitivity are the key watch-outs. Overall: solid fundamentals with manageable, but real, banking-cycle risk (fundamentalScore = 4).
Sentiment
fairSentiment is mildly positive, supported by a new product launch and a constructive price target action.
Mildly constructive, forming setup: an announced Valley Foundry product launch (2026-09-09) with mildly net-positive in-window reception and a Morgan Stanley price-target action to $17 (Hold) are partially digested, the sentiment delta is determinate but flat (+0.10 → +0.05, both mildly positive), the Red-Flag Screen is clean, and retail is indeterminate; with no forward-dated catalyst surfaced, the trailing, already-priced bullish driver keeps the setup out of the top band.
Technical
weakThe stock is in a strong short-term downtrend, with price below key moving averages and negative momentum indicators.
Bearish short-term structure: price 13.40 sits below the SMA20 (13.80), SMA50 (14.29), EMA9 (13.66), EMA21 (13.86) and today's VWAP (13.47), with only the SMA200 (13.28) still below. Momentum is negative and unhealed - MACD line -0.21 below a -0.19 signal, RSI 34.92 near but not at oversold, Williams %R -85.25 deeply oversold - while ADX 34.14 confirms the trend strength is real, i.e. a strong DOWN trend, not a basing range. Volume is elevated on the down days (9/16: 12.0M shares -1.96%; 9/18: 13.2M shares). The only bullish hints are the oversold momentum cluster and the hold above the SMA200; at best this supports a bounce, not a 1-15 day swing-long entry. Chart score 2/5.
You’re looking at 2026-09-21 — more than 2 trading days ago.
Subscribers saw this then, and see today’s score, verdict and trade plan now.
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Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.