Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR)

Nomura’s latest annual 20-F and subsequent 6-K show improved earnings with solid liquidity and regulatory capital (CET1 ~12.9%, liquidity portfolio ~¥10.7tn). Shares appear modestly valued (~10× earnings, ~1× book) with a mid-single-digit dividend yield, but performance remains highly market-cycle dependent. FundamentalScore: 4/5.

Media tone turned more bullish after late-July Q1 earnings beat headlines (confidence: announced), but a near-term sell-side price-target cut adds a conflicting signal, triggering a Moderate red-flag cap at 3. Last ~14d news sentiment is strongly positive versus a mildly positive/mixed 30–90d baseline; no regulator-confirmed investigations surfaced (case search was partially blocked by CAPTCHA).

Mixed but constructively positioned pullback. The intermediate and long-term trends are intact: price (10.23) sits above the rising SMA50 (9.96) and SMA200 (8.82), with the 50 above the 200. Short-term, NMR has corrected four consecutive sessions from the Sep-11 high of 10.94 to 10.23 (-6.5%), now below the SMA20 (10.28), EMA9 (10.47), EMA21 (10.31) and daily VWAP (10.27). Momentum is resetting rather than broken: RSI14 has cooled from 71 (Sep-11) to a neutral 50.13, Williams %R is deeply oversold at -88.75, and the MACD line (0.20) remains positive even though the histogram has just ticked negative (-0.02). ADX14 at 22.37 confirms the trend is not yet strong, so this is a support-hunt within an intact uptrend rather than a momentum entry. Volume is healthy (20-day average dollar volume $7.56M vs the $5M floor) and down-day volume is not climactic. The nearest support is today's session low 10.23 with the Sep 1-2 launch base at 10.14 just below; a stop under that base (10.02 after the 1.0xATR pullback floor) keeps the invalidation level outside normal retest noise. Score 3 reflects the mixture: bullish trend position and oversold short-term oscillator, offset by a not-yet-confirmed momentum turn and a weak ADX.