Grupo Televisa, S.A.B. (TV)

Cheap, cash-generative Mexican telecom with a shrinking top line. Revenue has fallen five years running and Satellite is collapsing, but operating segment margin expanded roughly 380bp in Q3 2026, 9M 2026 net income turned positive, operating cash flow stays strong and debt is being retired below par. No going-concern language, no covenant breach and no near refinancing wall; the 2026 dividend is suspended and a large capital increase/dilution is under way, with a DOJ FIFA probe and sub-1.0x EBIT interest coverage as the main overhangs. A mixed, uncertain risk/reward rather than a clean bargain.

The dominant in-window event is the trailing Q3 2026 print (announced, neutral reception: an EPS beat and a swing back to profit offset by a 3.8% revenue decline, roughly 20-25% Sky revenue erosion and a 26.7% drop in consolidated operating income), with the unresolved AT&T Mexico wireless JV as the only forward-looking process driver; the sentiment delta is indeterminate because the 30-90 day baseline returned no scorable on-topic coverage. A moderate red-flag cap applies for conflicting catalyst signals (UBS price-target cut against New Street's upgrade to Hold), and on the completed array the balance is weak rather than genuinely mixed - no bullish leg was rewarded by the tape, which printed a fresh 52-week low after the report - so the score-2 row governs rather than the capped ceiling.

Downtrend with a short-term bounce, not a bullish short-term setup. Price (latest bar close 2.245, input snapshot 2.225) sits below SMA20 2.27, SMA50 2.36 and SMA200 2.78, and below the 2.27 daily VWAP, while only the fast short-lag averages (EMA9 2.21, WMA9 2.18, DEMA14 2.18, TEMA14 2.18) sit underneath after the 2026-11-02 capitulation low of 2.01. The bounce was real but mechanical: RSI14 recovered from 28.44 on 2026-11-02 to 47.65, Williams %R from -98.04 to -48.91, and MACD histogram improved from -0.03 to 0.00, but MACD line (-0.05) is still below zero and below its signal (-0.06), and ADX14 at 21.67 confirms a weak, non-trending tape rather than an impulse. ATR14 is 0.10 (4.49% of the snapshot price) so daily range is tradable, but the medium-term structure overhead (2.30-2.33 last-week supply, then the 2.36-2.40 shelf) caps immediate upside. Chart quality is therefore bounce-only (score 2). Independently of the chart, the trade is inadmissible: qualitativeScore 2 is below the required floor of 3, and the 20-day average dollar volume of ~$2.91M is below the $5.00M liquidity floor.