Sasol Limited (SSL)

Cash-backed recovery, cheap valuation, messy governance: Sasol's FY2026 delivered EBITDA up 94%, positive free cash flow, falling net debt and comfortable covenant headroom with no going-concern flags, and the ADR trades at roughly 3.4x EV/EBITDA with an ~8% FCF yield and triple-digit DCF upside. But an adverse internal-controls opinion (four material weaknesses), a negative credit outlook, ongoing impairments and a heavy regulatory litigation load temper the case. Mixed fundamentals with an improving trajectory — watch rather than chase.

Dominant driver is the FY2026 annual results print (2026-09-01, announced): Reuters coverage reports earnings up 9% on higher oil prices and fuel volumes, adjusted EBITDA +17% to R61bn, and net debt cut to a decade-low $3.3bn, scored +0.6 in-window — but it sits opposite a same-window bearish operational disruption (Sasol refinery shutdown curbing Johannesburg jet-fuel supply) and mixed-to-negative analyst chatter on valuation. Media sentiment delta is determinate-improving (+0.05 baseline → +0.20 scoring) though on degraded samples (enrichment timeouts left 3–4 scored items per window); no severe red flags, but the moderate conflicting-catalyst cap is applied.

Score 4: strong uptrend structure (price above SMA20 13.14 / SMA50 12.13 / SMA200 10.59 with ADX14 30.90 rising) with one weak signal — MACD histogram has just ticked negative (-0.01) and price sits below EMA9 13.90 after a 4-session, ~10.7% pullback from the 09-15 high 15.18 that cooled RSI14 from 76 (overbought) to 55.32. Pullback volume is contracting (09-17 2.06M → 09-18 1.12M → 09-21 1.31M shares), consistent with an orderly dip inside an intact trend rather than distribution. This is a trend-aligned pullback-to-support entry: limit 13.55 just above the 09-21 regular-session low 13.54, protective stop 13.05 (Change-A pullback floor, 1.0×ATR), targets 14.55 / 15.30, R/R 2.00. All gates passed: liquidity ($24.5M 20-day / ~$18.2M recent 3-session), overnight gap (max 1.17% << 5%), minimum-ATR (3.69% ≥ 1.0%), indicator integrity (0 unavailable), holding-window events (none through 2026-10-12), fresh feed (dataAsOf = run date).