Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY)

Surgery Partners shows steady top-line growth and positive free cash flow, but high leverage and losses attributable to common shareholders keep the setup mixed. FY2025 revenue was $3.31B (up ~6% YoY) with EBITDA of $565.5M and free cash flow of $195.6M, yet the net loss attributable to Surgery Partners was $77.9M. Balance-sheet risk is the swing factor (net debt/EBITDA ~6.69x including lease obligations; interest coverage ~1.43x; Altman Z-Score ~0.89). The latest 10-Q reports solid liquidity (cash ~$216.7M and ~$617.8M revolver availability) and a subsequent-event agreement to sell controlling interests in two hospitals (~$795M headline consideration, including associated debt), which could improve leverage if it closes.

Dominant catalyst is the announced completion (2026-09-17) of the $797M Idaho Falls divestiture to Intermountain Health, a net-debt-reduction event the tape is still digesting; media sentiment shows a determinate cooling delta (baseline +0.19 → scoring ≈ +0.002) with split reception — positive deal-close coverage offset by a guidance reset and a −4.2% reaction day. Red-Flag Screen: no severe flags; moderate conflicting-signals cap applied.

Bearish continuation: SGRY trades below all key moving averages (SMA20 13.99, EMA9 13.76, EMA21 14.06, SMA50 14.86, SMA200 14.64) with MACD below zero (-0.33 line, -0.03 histogram) and a falling RSI (38.5) after a -12% six-session slide from the 09-14 high (14.73) to today's low (12.97). ADX 9.3 shows the slide has not even established trend strength. The only bullish element is deep-oversold Williams %R (-87.7) near the April/June support shelf (~12.3-13.0), which is bounce potential, not confirmation. Chart quality 2 (weak bearish / bounce-only), below the 3 required for any bullish entry. A pullback/oversold limit is additionally blocked by the trend-alignment gate (price < SMA50 with MACD < 0 — countertrend knife-catch), and no breakout stop qualifies (no consolidation base under a settled swing high; ADX 9.3 cannot carry a breakout).