Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG)

Recent SEC filings show strengthening profitability and credit quality (FY2026 net income ¥1.32T; CET1 13.16%; latest 6-K NPL ratio 0.70% and raised profit outlook to ¥1.4T). The ADR has low historical volatility (beta ~0.38) and active shareholder returns (dividends + buybacks), but valuation upside appears moderate (TTM P/E ~15; consensus target ~$10 vs $10.69).

Mizuho enters the window on an announced, market-rewarded Q1 print (profit +45.5% YoY, FY outlook raised to a record ¥1.4tn, buybacks doubled to ¥200bn) that is still being digested eight days post-release and is reinforced by a confirmed sell-side price-target raise; the sentiment delta is determinately positive (baseline ≈ -0.04 → scoring ≈ +0.17) and the Red-Flag Screen is clean, with no cap applied.

MFG is in a strong multi-month uptrend (+44% since late March; price 10.93 above rising SMA20 10.79, SMA50 10.59, SMA200 9.06 and EMA21 10.90). The last three sessions have pulled back from the 9/11 high of 11.49 in an orderly fashion while RSI14 reset from 68 to a neutral 52.4 and MACD stays positive (0.20/0.19) with a compressing histogram (0.06→0.01) — a classic pullback-to-support condition with the 20-day MA and the 9/16 low (10.815) as confluence. The weak leg is ADX14 at 17.7 (modest trend strength) and price under EMA9, which is why the entry is a limit buy below market at support rather than a breakout chase. All Step-00 gates pass: 20-day dollar volume ~$35.4M and recent 3-session ~$47.3M (both far above floors), max overnight gap 1.77% (<5%), ATR14 2.29% of price, no earnings/dividend/split events inside the 15-trading-day holding window (next confirmed earnings 2026-11-13). Protective stop at entry − 1.0×ATR (10.60, Change-A pullback floor) yields R/R 2.00 to target1.